Propitious Political Postings

The Two governor Fish Fries

Mon, 15 Jun 2026 21:15:20 GMT

And the winner is.....

If we have a big Election Day turnout Jones wins.

Georgia Governor Runoff: Polling and What It Actually Means

Sat, 06 Jun 2026 19:32:18 GMT

GEORGIA REPUBLICAN RUNOFF — An ANALYSIS

Georgia Governor Runoff: Final Polling and What It Means

Rick Jackson leads Burt Jones by 5.7 points in our final poll before early voting begins. On the surface, that's a comfortable margin. But the data underneath tells a different story, one where turnout, not sentiment, will decide whether Jackson holds on or Jones pulls off an upset.

The Numbers

Among 432 likely voters surveyed through June 6:

• Jackson: 45.8%

• Jones: 40.1%

• Undecided: 14.1%

Margin of error is ±4.7 percentage points.

The polling stabilized here. Earlier in the week, Jackson's lead was larger (48% in Round 1). The tightening is real, and it's worth understanding why.

Why This Race Got Tighter

Jackson dominates among older voters and institutional Republicans. He leads Trump-opposed voters 18% to 9.5%, which is a 2-to-1 advantage. He also performs better among moderates and the 65+ demographic, which typically votes at higher rates in Republican primaries.

Jones, meanwhile, owns younger voters decisively. Among 18–29 year olds, Jones leads Jackson 37.5% to 12.5%, a three-to-one split. Jones also holds a slight edge among Trump supporters (24% to Jackson's 22%), and he performs better with Somewhat Conservative voters than Jackson does.

This isn't a story about persuasion. It's a story about whose voters show up . You must remember that Jones was showing the same pattern before the primary vote. Jackson was ahead and Jones kept closing the gap and on Election Day, well Jones voters showed up. The question is do we see a replay on election day?

The Turnout Question

Primary-to-runoff turnout typically drops. Voters get fatigued. The stakes feel lower. But in this race, both sides have reasons to vote: Trump supporters have skin in the game across multiple races (Senate, Lt. Governor), and Jackson supporters want to consolidate the institutional lane. We expect 680,000 up to 710,000 currently. We will watch the early voting to see how it paces with the previous primary count.

The wildcard is younger voters. In our polling, 18–29 voters represent only 1% of the likely-voter universe, because they historically don't vote in GOP primaries at high rates. But if Jones's operation can push 18–29 participation to, say, 2–3% of the actual runoff electorate, and they're showing 37.5% for Jones, that alone could swing 0.5–1 point in his direction.

That might not sound like much, but it compounds. If Trump-base voters also turn out at slightly lower rates than the primary, and if 65+ voters (Jackson's bedrock) soften even marginally, the 5.7-point lead becomes a margin of error race.

The Chris Carr Factor

Former Attorney General Chris Carr endorsed Jackson. This matters, but not the way many people assume.

Carr's voters were probably soft on runoff turnout. The primary is over; Carr lost; why show up? The endorsement is a permission structure for institutional Republicans to vote Jackson. It activates people who were already leaning Jackson but needed a nudge.

In the crosstabs, Jackson already dominates with Trump-opposed voters and institutional Republicans. Carr's endorsement probably adds 1–2 points by activating those soft voters. It's a real advantage, but it doesn't reshape the race. It doesn't move Trump-base voters or younger voters. It consolidates ground Jackson already held.

What This Means in the Ruoff

Jackson is favored. His crosstabs are stronger. His demographic coalition includes the most reliable voters (65+, moderate, institutional GOP). If turnout looks like a standard GOP runoff, Jackson wins by 5–7 points.

But if turnout composition shifts, Jones has a path. That path requires younger voters to outperform historical expectations, Trump-base enthusiasm to hold (or exceed primary rates), and Jackson's institutional base to soften marginally. It's narrower, but it's real.

The race isn't a toss-up. But it's also not decided. Tuesday's turnout will determine the outcome more than current sentiment will. We’ll say it again: This isn't a story about persuasion. It's a story about whose voters show up . Jones voters showed up on Election Day. The question is, do we see a replay on election day?

There are other runoffs on the ballot?

Senate: Mike Collins leads Derek Dooley 44.4% to 35.8%. Collins dominates the Trump-base (30% to Dooley's 12%) and performs better with older voters. His lead is larger and more structural than Jackson's, making him the safer candidate in this race.

Lt. Governor: Greg Dolezal and John F Kennedy are nearly tied, Dolezal at 38.6%, Kennedy at 34.7%, within the MOE. The race splits almost perfectly along the Trump axis: Dolezal leads Strong Trump supporters, Kennedy leads Trump-opposed voters. There is plenty of room with the undecided voter at 26.7% and they are the key to winning. Whichever coalition turns out stronger will win this race.

Secretary of State: Tim Fleming leads Vernon Jones 37.4% to 27.9%, but nearly 35% of voters are undecided. This race is still in play.

And Others : Secretary of State Fleming is at 37.4%, V.Joes is at 27.9% and undecided are at 34.7%. Fleming has 9.5 point lead but then there is that 35% undecided vote.We suspect Fleming advances to the General ELection in November 2026. Superintendent Race has Loggear at 36.9%, Woods at 19.2% and undecided 43.9%. That my friend is a wide open race leaning to Longgear. Finally, PSC District 5 has 58.7% undecided, Tolbert 30.1%, and Mehan at 11.2%

The General Election Angle

Jackson's campaign is positioning him as the electable conservative, someone who can appeal to moderates and institutional Republicans while also claiming the conservative mantle. Carr's endorsement reinforces that message.

Against Keisha Lance Bottoms in November, that positioning matters. Georgia's general election electorate will include independents and soft Republicans who aren't voting in the June 16 runoff. Jackson's strength with moderates and his institutional backing will be assets in that race.

Jones's campaign, by contrast, is centered on Trump-base mobilization and outsider positioning. Those are powerful in a GOP primary. They're less potent in a general election against an energized Democratic base.

The runoff is about June 16. But the strategic advantage goes to whichever candidate has built a coalition that can survive both the runoff and the general.

What Happens Next

Early voting begins Monday, June 8. Runoff day is Tuesday, June 16. Results will be called that night.

Before voters head to the polls, both campaigns will spend the next 72 hours on turnout. Jackson's team will try to activate older voters and institutional Republicans. Jones's operation will push younger voters and Trump-base supporters. Whoever turns out their coalition more effectively wins.

Our polling shows Jackson ahead, but close enough that execution matters. In runoff elections, it almost always does.

Final poll: 432 completed interviews, fielded June 5-6, 2026. MOE ±4.7%. Voting begins Monday, June 8. Runoff election Tuesday, June 16.

Georgia 2026 Republican Runoff Poll: Round 2 Update Shows Jackson and Collins Holding Leads, But Turnout Still Rules

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 23:03:18 GMT

Georgia 2026 Republican Runoff Poll: Round 2 Results (Jackson Ahead, But Jones Surging)

A Propitious statewide survey of likely Republican runoff voters, fielded June 5, 2026 — the day before early voting begins.

ROUND 2 — FINAL PRE-VOTING SNAPSHOT

Georgia’s June 16 Republican primary runoff is one day of early voting away, and our second tracking poll reveals a tightening race in the Governor’s contest and an electorate increasingly focused on electability over ideology. This is Round 2, our final pre-voting snapshot. The numbers have moved since Round 1, and the crosstabs tell a story that headline percentages alone don’t capture.

When is the Georgia primary runoff?

The Georgia primary runoff is Tuesday, June 16, 2026. In-person early (advance) voting begins Monday, June 8, 2026. The runoff determines the Republican nominees for the November 3, 2026 general election. The Senate nominee faces Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff; the gubernatorial nominee faces Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms.

Key findings: Round 2 (June 5, 2026)

Turnout is strong: 93% definitely or probably voting (up from 92% Round 1).

Round 2 vs. Round 1: What moved?

The headline race has tightened significantly — and the crosstabs explain why:

Governor Jackson: 48% → 46% (-2) | Jones: 35% → 38% (+3) | Lt. Gov Kennedy: 37% → 38% (+1), Dolezal: 39% → 37% (-2)

The Governor’s race is the story. Jackson’s lead has shrunk from 13 points to 8 points in one week. Jones is gaining. The crosstabs show why: Jones dominates among voters aged 18–29 (37.5% vs. Jackson’s 12.5%) and leads among 30–44 (16% vs. Jackson’s 26%). If those younger cohorts turn out on June 16, Jones wins — poll lead or not. This validates the pre-primary caution: election-day turnout is the wildcard.

The Lt. Governor race has flipped. In Round 1, Dolezal led Kennedy 39% – 37%. In Round 2, Kennedy leads 38% – 37% — a tie , but directional Kennedy is up. Kennedy gains among Trump opposers (20.5% vs. Dolezal’s 4.9%), while Dolezal holds the Trump base (23.4% vs. Kennedy’s 16.8%).

Senate is solidifying for Collins. Collins’s lead is holding solid at 7 points. Collins dominates Strong Trump supporters (30% vs. Dooley 12%) and older voters (65+: 22% vs. Dooley 18%), the most reliable primary electorate.

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Governor runoff?

Rick Jackson leads Burt Jones 46% to 38% , with 16% undecided . But this headline masks a critical vulnerability: Jones has structural strength among younger voters and the Trump base , both reliable turnout in a GOP primary.

The crosstabs reveal the election-day risk for Jackson:

• 18–29 voters: Jones 37.5% vs. Jackson 12.5% — three-to-one advantage

• 65+ voters: Jackson 25.5% vs. Jones 16.4% — Jackson’s only clear advantage

• Strong Trump supporters: Jones 24% vs. Jackson 22% — Jones edges the Trump base

• Moderates: Jackson 19% vs. Jones 11.5% — Jackson’s only clear win

Bottom line: Jackson’s 46–38 lead is real. But if election-day turnout skews younger, more Trump-base, or Somewhat Conservative, Jones wins. Our pre-primary polling also showed Jackson ahead — until Jones’s voters showed up on election day.

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO WITH THIS:

1. Governor: Jones surge is real and documented in crosstabs. Young voters (under 45) are his path. If turnout model shows Jones can drive 18–29 and 30–44 votes, he wins June 16 , poll lead or not. Jackson if he banks 65+.

2. Senate: Collins safer. His Trump base more reliable than Dooley's younger base.

3. Lt. Governor: True toss-up. Dolezal's Trump base standard; Kennedy's Trump-oppose base smaller but real.

4. Down-ballot: Large 'Did Not Answer' and undecided shares on SOS and Superintendent. Persuasion still matters .

Who is leading the Georgia Republican U.S. Senate runoff?

Mike Collins leads Derek Dooley 44% to 37% , with 19% undecided . Collins’s advantage is structural: he owns the Trump base and dominates older voters, the most reliable turnout in a GOP primary.

Collins is safer than Jackson. Strong Trump supporters: Collins 30% vs. Dooley 12%. Older voters (65+): Collins 22% vs. Dooley 18%. Unless younger voters massively outperform, Collins holds.

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Lieutenant Governor runoff?

Greg Dolezal and John Kennedy are tied at 37% (Dolezal 37.4% vs. Kennedy 37.9%, within MOE), with 25% undecided. This race is a coin flip — decided by which demographic turns out.

The split is pure Trump divide: Strong Trump supporters favor Dolezal (23.4% vs. Kennedy 16.8%). Trump opposers favor Kennedy (20.5% vs. Dolezal 4.9% — four-to-one). If Trump-base voters dominate, Dolezal wins. If Trump-uncertain voters show up higher, Kennedy wins.

What is driving the runoff electorate?

Voters are embracing pragmatic conservatism. The single most important shift: “Both electability and ideology matter equally” jumped from 37% to 43% (+6 points). Voters reject the false choice. They want both conservative AND can-win-in-November. This benefits Jackson and Collins.

Who we surveyed

n=487 respondents (407 completed, 80 partial). The Round 2 electorate is older, very conservative, and strongly pro-Trump:

• Age: 65+ 58%, 45–64 35%, 30–44 6.5%, 18–29 1%

• Gender: Male 51.5%, Female 45.9%

• Ideology: Very conservative 48%, Somewhat conservative 31%, Moderate 20%

• Trump support: Strongly 56%, Somewhat 22%, Oppose/Neutral 22%

Methodology

This is Round 2 of Propitious’s multi-round runoff tracking survey, fielded June 5, 2026 — the day before early voting begins. Conducted among likely Republican runoff voters statewide. Results are reported as percentages of those answering each question. Margin of error ±4.97 percentage points at 95% confidence.

Frequently asked questions

When is the Georgia runoff? Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Early voting Monday, June 8–Friday, June 12.

Is the Governor race close? Jackson leads 46–38. But Jones dominates younger voters (18–29: 37.5% vs. Jackson 12.5%), so election-day turnout composition decides it.

Who is leading Senate? Collins 44% leads Dooley 37%. Collins owns Trump base and older voters — more reliable on election day.

Is Lt. Governor close? Yes — Kennedy 38%, Dolezal 37%, a tie. Kennedy leads Trump opposers; Dolezal leads Trump supporters. Turnout composition decides.

What changed from Round 1? Governor tightened (Jackson -2, Jones +3). Lt. Gov flipped Kennedy now leads. Electability messaging surged (+6). Turnout up.

Georgia 2026 Republican Runoff Poll: Governor, Senate & Statewide Races (Round 1)

Fri, 05 Jun 2026 16:09:00 GMT

June 16 runoff poll: Jackson, Collins lead—but May taught us to watch election-day turnout

A Propitious statewide survey of likely Republican runoff voters, fielded before early voting begins in the June 16 runoff.

ROUND 1 — PRE-VOTING

Georgia’s June 16, 2026 Republican primary runoff is days away, and several statewide races remain unsettled. This is Round 1 of our runoff tracking poll, a snapshot of where the contests stand before early voting begins. A second round is in the field and will be added to this report later today as the picture sharpens.

When is the Georgia primary runoff?

The Georgia primary runoff is Tuesday, June 16, 2026. In-person early (advance) voting begins Monday, June 8, 2026. The runoff was triggered in races where no candidate cleared 50% in the May 19 primary. The winners advance to the November 3, 2026 general election, the Republican Senate nominee against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, and the Republican gubernatorial nominee against Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms.

Who is on the June 16 Republican runoff ballot?

• Governor: Burt Jones vs. Rick Jackson

• U.S. Senate: Mike Collins vs. Derek Dooley

• Lieutenant Governor: Greg Dolezal vs. John Kennedy

• Secretary of State: Tim Fleming vs. Vernon Jones

• State School Superintendent: Fred “Bubba” Longgrear vs. Richard Woods

• Public Service Commission District 5: Josh Tolbert vs. Bobby Mehan

The runoff electorate is highly engaged: 92% say they are definitely or probably voting.

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Governor runoff?

Rick Jackson opens Round 1 with the widest lead of any statewide contest: Jackson 48%, Burt Jones 35%, undecided 17%. Jackson sits just short of an outright majority, and the comparatively small undecided share makes this the most defined race on the runoff slate.

A word of caution on the Governor’s race. Read that Jackson lead with the recent past in mind. Heading into the May primary, Propitious polling also showed Rick Jackson ahead of Burt Jones, and then, on election day, Jones’s voters turned out in force and propelled him to the front of the primary field. The lesson from May is plain: election-day turnout was the wildcard, and a polling lead is not the same as a ballot-box result. Our Round 1 numbers describe sentiment today; they do not predict who shows up on June 16. If the Jones turnout machine repeats its primary performance, this race can move fast.

Who is leading the Georgia Republican U.S. Senate runoff?

Mike Collins holds a narrow edge over Derek Dooley among likely runoff voters: Collins 43%, Dooley 39%, undecided 19%. With nearly one in five voters still undecided, the Senate contest is the closest of the top-of-ticket races and well within reach for either candidate. The winner faces Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November.

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Lieutenant Governor runoff?

The Lieutenant Governor runoff is effectively tied: Greg Dolezal 39%, John Kennedy 37%. With 24% undecided — the largest undecided bloc among the top-tier races — this contest is the most volatile and the likeliest to move once ballots are cast.

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Secretary of State runoff?

Tim Fleming leads Vernon Jones 42% to 30%, with 29% undecided. Fleming holds a double-digit advantage, but the large undecided share leaves room for movement down the ballot.

Who is leading the Georgia State School Superintendent runoff?

This is the most unsettled named contest on the ballot. Fred “Bubba” Longgrear leads at 40%, Richard Woods trails at 20%, and 39% remain undecided — a sign that down-ballot education races draw far less voter attention this early.

Who is leading the Public Service Commission District 5 runoff?

PSC District 5 is wide open: a 54% majority is undecided, with Josh Tolbert at 34% and Bobby Mehan at 12%. As the lowest-profile race tested, it is the most likely to be decided by late-deciding voters and turnout.

What is driving the runoff electorate?

The Governor’s race is the biggest draw. Asked which contest is the biggest reason they will turn out, 43% named Governor, 13% the U.S. Senate race, and 39% said they vote in every Republican election.

Voters prize character over ideology. The single most-cited priority was a candidate who is honest and trustworthy (34%), ahead of being the strongest supporter of President Trump’s agenda (25%), being conservative but focused on winning in November (22%), and having experience and a record of results (16%).

Electability is on their minds. Looking to November, 37% said nominating the Republican with the best chance to win the general election matters most, another 37% said both electability and ideology matter equally, and just 11% prioritized nominating the most conservative candidate.

There is real anxiety about the fall. A combined 69% are very or somewhat concerned that Republicans could lose statewide races in Georgia this November — 38% very concerned, 31% somewhat concerned.

Who we surveyed

The Round 1 likely-runoff electorate skews older, conservative, and strongly pro-Trump:

• Age: 65+ 57%, 45–64 34%, 30–44 7%, 18–29 1%.

• Gender: Male 52%, Female 45%.

• Ideology: Very conservative 45%, somewhat conservative 29%, moderate 25%.

• Trump support: Strongly support 57%, somewhat support 20% — a combined 77% supportive.

Methodology

This is Round 1 of a multi-round runoff tracking survey conducted by Propitious among likely Republican runoff voters statewide, fielded before in-person early voting in the June 16 runoff. Results are reported as percentages of those answering each question; figures are rounded to the nearest whole percent and may not total 100. The margin of error for the ballot questions is approximately ±7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, so early-round results are directional. As our own primary experience showed, election-day turnout can diverge sharply from pre-election sentiment. Undecided shares are large in several down-ballot races and are expected to narrow as voting nears. Round 2 results will be added to this report later today.

Frequently asked questions

When is the Georgia primary runoff? The runoff is Tuesday, June 16, 2026. In-person early voting begins Monday, June 8, 2026.

Who is leading the 2026 Georgia Republican Governor runoff? In Round 1, Rick Jackson leads Burt Jones 48% to 35%, with 17% undecided — though our pre-primary polling also led with Jackson before Jones surged on election day, so treat the lead with caution.

Who is leading the 2026 Georgia Republican U.S. Senate runoff? Mike Collins leads Derek Dooley 43% to 39%, with 19% undecided.

Is the Georgia Lieutenant Governor runoff close? Yes. Greg Dolezal (39%) and John Kennedy (37%) are within the margin of error, with 24% undecided — the closest top-tier race.

Which Georgia runoff race has the most undecided voters? Public Service Commission District 5, where 54% of likely voters are undecided.

Who advances to November? Runoff winners go to the November 3, 2026 general election. The Senate nominee faces Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff; the gubernatorial nominee faces Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms.

Round 1 — fielded before early voting. Check back for the Round 2 update.

Right Matchups, Wrong Order: Lessons from a Volatile Primary Night

Wed, 20 May 2026 20:33:34 GMT

In political data, if you aren't humble, the electorate will gladly do the job for you.

On my desk is a small clipping of a headline from the Wall Street Journal from back in the '90s. It says: "Ignore Your Pride, Ego: Market Always Rules." In political data, the market is the voter, and the Election Day voter drives the ship. It is true that direction can be found with brushfire and exit polls, but unknown variables and real-time voter turnout can always throw a curveball.

As the final Georgia primary election results trickled in, voters across the state were left asking one major question: who won the Republican primary in Georgia? Looking at the numbers from the Georgia GOP primary, a newly deployed 5-wave early-voting exit poll ($n=2,907$) achieved its primary mission: it correctly identified every single runoff matchup on the ballot. But a look at the final scoreboard shows that Election Day voters had the final say, flipping the order in major races and reminding everyone why early-vote data is only half the puzzle.

For those checking the Georgia election results today , here is a balanced look at where the early data got it right, and where the Election Day surge shifted the ground.

1. Georgia Governor Primary: The Matchup Was Right, the Order Flipped

The Early Poll: Rick Jackson 36.9%, Burt Jones 31.1%
The Actual Result: Burt Jones (~38.3%), Rick Jackson (~32.5%)
The Reality Check: For those wondering who won the Georgia primary for Governor, the model correctly predicted a Jackson-Jones runoff, but missed the final order. The early-vote data accurately captured Jackson’s strength with traditional, older early voters. However, Election Day momentum swung heavily to Jones, completely reversing the top spot. It’s a win on the matchup, but a clear lesson in Election Day volatility.

2. Lieutenant Governor Primary Results: Capturing the Contenders

The Early Poll: Greg Dolezal 29.9%, John F. Kennedy 25.9%
The Actual Result: John F. Kennedy (~27.3%), Greg Dolezal (~23.1%)
The Reality Check: Once again, the poll successfully put the right two candidates in the runoff. While the tracking waves picked up genuine late momentum for Dolezal during early voting, Kennedy commanded the Election Day turnout to take the actual first-place finish in the primary election Georgia results .

3. Secretary of State: Spotting the Runoff Floor

The Early Poll: Vernon Jones 29.2%, Tim Fleming 25.0%
The Actual Result: Tim Fleming (~39.2%), Vernon Jones (~27.3%)
The Reality Check: The poll rightly anticipated that Vernon Jones had a solid baseline floor to make the runoff, and identified Fleming as the chief competitor. What the early data couldn't fully capture was the sheer scale of Fleming’s Election Day surge, which cleared Jones by double digits in the final primary results .

4. Public Service Commission (Dist. 5): The Best Call of the Night

The Early Poll: Josh Tolbert 55.0% (of decided, but 31% overall due to a 43% skip rate)
The Actual Result: Josh Tolbert (~47.2%), Bobby Mehan (~31.1%)
The Reality Check: This is where raw data discipline paid off. While a surface-level glance at the early vote suggested Tolbert might clear the 50% threshold, the analysis flagged the massive 43% undervote (skips) and correctly forecasted that he would fall short, forcing a runoff with Mehan.

The Takeaway on the Georgia Primary Results

Nailing four for four on runoff matchups in a crowded primary is a serious win for a boutique methodology, but the flips in the top spots keep things grounded. Early voting and Election Day voting are increasingly looking like two entirely different electorates in Georgia.

The model proved it can spot the trends and identify the finalists, but until the final Election Day data is fully reconciled and integrated, the precise order remains a wild card. The baseline is solid—now it's time to refine the model for the runoffs. I rate this a win, sort of, but not a complete success.

Georgia 2026 Republican Primary: Rick Jackson vs Burt Jones, and Three Other Races Likely Headed to a Runoff

Mon, 18 May 2026 19:27:58 GMT

Combined Five-Wave Exit Poll of 2,907 Georgia Republican Early Voters Shows Jackson, Dolezal, Vernon Jones, and Tolbert Leading Their Races, But No Candidate Near the 50% Threshold

By Charles Mobley, Propitious LLC | Published Monday, May 18, 2026

Georgia voters head to the polls Tuesday, May 19, 2026, for the Republican primary. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. across all 159 counties. With early voting now complete, five waves of independent exit polling conducted by Propitious LLC throughout the early voting period, 2,907 unique respondents in all, point to a single conclusion: every contested statewide down-ballot race we tested appears headed for a June 16 runoff.

Here's where each race stands going into Election Day.

Will the Georgia Governor primary go to a runoff?

Yes, almost certainly. Rick Jackson leads our combined five-wave exit poll at 37% of decided early voters, well below the 50% threshold needed to win outright. Burt Jones sits at 31%, Brad Raffensperger at 18%, and Chris Carr at 11%.

Jackson has led every wave, but his lead over Jones has narrowed across the cycle, from a double-digit gap in Wave 1 to single digits by Wave 5. The most plausible runoff matchup is Jackson vs. Jones. A Jackson-Raffensperger pairing remains possible if Election Day produces a suburban Atlanta surge.

Who is Rick Jackson? A businessman and outsider candidate who has consolidated grassroots and conservative support.

Who is Burt Jones? The sitting Lt Governor of Georgia, who has run on a Trump-aligned, populist platform.

Who is leading the Georgia Lt Governor primary?

Greg Dolezal, but only recently. John F. Kennedy led our first three waves; Dolezal surged in Waves 4 and 5 and now leads the combined data with 30% of decided voters to Kennedy's 26%. Blake Tillery sits in third at 21%, remarkably steady across all five waves.

A runoff is certain. The most likely matchup is Dolezal vs. Kennedy, though Tillery is a realistic spoiler if Election Day breaks his way.

What's happening in the Georgia Secretary of State race?

This is the closest race on the ballot. Vernon Jones leads with 29% of decided voters, but Tim Fleming (25%) and Kelvin King (24%) are essentially tied for the second runoff slot. The race has had three different wave-leaders across the cycle. Fleming has shown the steadiest gains; Vernon Jones has bled support from a commanding Wave 1 lead. Watch this race Tuesday night — Election Day will decide who joins Vernon Jones in the runoff.

Who will win the Georgia PSC primary?

Josh Tolbert leads the Public Service Commission race with 55% of decided voters to Bobby Mehan's 27% and Carolyn Roddy's 19%. But the PSC race had the highest skip rate of any contest we tested (43%), and the 50% threshold for outright victory is calculated against total ballots cast — making a Tolbert vs. Mehan runoff essentially certain.

What this exit poll can and cannot tell us

This data measures the early voting electorate only. Georgia Election Day voters, historically 45-55% of GOP primary turnout, are not in this sample. These respondents self-selected into our SMS-to-web poll, which skews toward engaged supervoter Republicans. Final percentages and runoff seeding could differ from what these results suggest, though the overall direction is clear.

What to watch Tuesday night

Four runoffs are likely set for June 16. Tuesday won't settle these races — it will tell us which two candidates make the cut in each contest.

NOTE: The Attorney General Election was not included because Propitious LLC works for Brian Strickland for Attorney General.
Charles Mobley is Principal Consultant at Propitious LLC, a Georgia political intelligence firm. Combined five-wave exit poll fielded April 27 – May 16, 2026, n=2,907. Full methodology and crosstabs available on request.

2026 Georgia Republican Primary

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 19:31:32 GMT

2026 Georgia Republican Primary for Governor: Latest Poll Results

The 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary is heating up — and the latest polling data reveals a race that is not going the way most political observers expected.

Rick Jackson leads the field in every major voter category. Among decided Republican primary voters, Jackson wins more than half — carrying Trump supporters, traditional conservatives, and Kemp-style Republicans simultaneously. That breadth of support is rare in any competitive primary.

Burt Jones holds the Trump endorsement but has not converted it into ballot support. Among MAGA voters — the largest bloc in the Georgia Republican primary electorate — Jackson still leads Jones by nearly 20 points despite the endorsement.

The wildcard is younger voters. Among Republican primary voters aged 35 to 54, Jones leads and Raffensperger runs stronger than his overall numbers suggest. Higher younger-voter turnout on May 19 could tighten this race significantly.

With roughly 21% of voters still undecided heading into the final stretch, the Georgia governor's race remains worth watching. Jackson enters the home stretch with the most stable coalition and the strongest advertising performance of any candidate in the field.

Want to read the results? Go to the Crosstabs section and get the entire report!

Primary Election Day: May 19, 2026.

Georgia Congressional District 14 Results versus Polling

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 19:33:11 GMT

Would You Hire Propitious LLC?

Final Results of Georgia Congressional District 14 Exit Polling

Sun, 08 Mar 2026 19:08:15 GMT

The Real Math on the GA CD 14 Early Vote

Make sure you read the final updateafter this!

Let's talk about what the numbers really say about the early voting in the Georgia Congressional District 14 special election. We have the actual data on all 60,250 people who voted early, and the plain math tells an interesting story. (Look for the Toplines and Crosstabs on the Crosstabs Page.)

The first thing to note is that Republican voters were less likely to respond to the text message surveys. The actual list of early voters is 50.1 percent Strong GOP, but the people answering the texts were only 37.4 percent Strong GOP. That is a massive difference.

But there is a new twist we are seeing with crossover voters. Some people who are modeled as Republicans but call themselves Independents are crossing over to vote for a Democrat. Because of this, the total vote between all Republicans and all Democrats is closer than the district's heavy Republican advantage would suggest. Depending on how you calculate those Independent crossover voters, the total margin ranges from essentially tied to Republicans being up by 3.3 points.

When you look at the individual candidates, Democrat Shawn Harris leads the pack at 39.9 percent. However, when you combine all Republican candidates, they project to 50.7 percent of the vote. On the Republican side, Clay Fuller dominates the field with 58.4 percent of the projected Republican votes. Colton Moore is a distant second with 23.7 percent. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff between Harris and Fuller is the most likely scenario. Read the Georgia Congressional District 14 Exit Poll Combined Report Projections for the full story.

Keep in mind that this projection only covers early voters. Voters who show up on Election Day historically skew more Republican. That trend should widen the Republican margin in the final result.

The Metro Atlanta Snapshot: Unpacking the 2026 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 22:14:50 GMT

The Metro Snapshot: Unpacking the 2026 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

What We are Hearing About the 2026 GOP Governor’s Race

Things are starting to heat up for the 2026 primary season! While political junkies are busy dissecting every new poll, we just got some interesting data that gives us a real peek into what people are thin king. This is not a statewide poll; it is just a clear snapshot of what Republican voters in the top-tier counties are saying.

This new info focuses only on Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, and Cherokee counties. Now, why does that matter? Simple, these four counties are a huge part of who decides the Republican primary. Usually, about one in four Republican primary voters in the state comes from t hem .

Compared to the rest of Georgia, these counties are often viewed as a bit older, more settled, and more aligned with the established conservative crowd. So, how are they leaning?

Rick Jackson is in the Lead, But Hold Your Horses

Rick Jackson has a clear advantage. He is sitting at 38.7% support. Behind him is Burt Jones at 19.9%. Brad Raffensperger and Chris Carr are currently further back.

Here is the really interesting part: almost 28% of voters say they are still undecided.

Even the people who have a favorite candidate seem pretty flexible. Around 70% of the people surveyed said they could still change their minds before they vote. So while Jackson is leading today, this race is far from over. Everyone’s vote is still up for grabs.

The Trump Endorsement vs. the Suburban Voter

This is where the political messaging gets tricky. Burt Jones has the high-profile endorsement of Donald Trump. You might think that seals the deal, right? But the numbers tell a different story in t hese counties .

Rick Jackson is actually picking up a big chunk of those suburban voters who like Trump but maybe are not the diehard "MAGA" types. This suggests that many suburban voters are not voting solely on that endorsement, or maybe they have not really focused on it yet. As Jones starts advertising more, this could change in a hurry, so keep an eye on how that endorsement dynamic shifts.

What Actually Matters to These Families?

Forget national talking points for a minute, everyday Georgians in t hese counties care about two things: their pocketbook and their safety.

When it comes to economic issues, 45% of v oters said they would rather see property taxes frozen or eliminated entirely. That beat out traditional state income tax cuts! H omeowners are feeling the pinch and they want local relief firs t.

On safety, most people feel secure in their neighborhoods. However, a significant group, 20%, say they feel less safe now than they did four years ago. That is a sentiment candidates cannot ignore and it might push those undecided voters toward whoever sounds strongest on crime.

The Bottom Line

We are heading into the primary. What happens with these undecided and persuadable voters in t hese counties is going to create the momentum that carries the winning candidate across the rest of the state. Stay tuned, because this is just getting interesting!

CD 14 UPDATE - Exit Poll

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 01:02:39 GMT

Make sure you read the next two updates!

The Hidden Story of GA CD-14: Why the Polls Don’t Tell the Whole Tale - March 1, 2026

Is Georgia’s 14th Congressional District seeing a surprise Democratic surge, or is there something deeper happening beneath the surface? Recent exit poll data from 28,544 early voters (February 19–27, 2026) initially suggested a 5.5-point lead for Democrat Shawn Harris. However, a closer look at the non-response bias reveals a much different reality: a projected 9.6-point lead for Republicans.

The "Silent" Republican Voter

The discrepancy comes down to who is, and isn't, answering the polling. While the raw poll showed Harris ahead, the actual voter universe is significantly more conservative than the sample of 635 respondents.

Participation Gap : "Strong GOP" voters made up 50.6% of the non-respondents but only 37.6% of the poll participants.

The 13-Point Shift : This systematic reluctance of Republican primary participants to respond created a massive 15.1-point "swing" between the raw poll and the projected reality.

Breaking Down the Projected Vote

When adjusting for behavioral data and 2024 primary patterns, the combined projection paints a clear picture of GOP dominance in early voting:

Shawn Harris (D) Projected Vote Share 40.2%
GOP Combined Field Projected Vote Share 49.8%
Refused to /Other Projected Vote Share 10%

Among the Republican contenders, Clay Fuller leads the pack with 28.9%, followed by Colton Moore at 11.8%.

Is Momentum Shifting?

While the overall projection favors Republicans, the week-by-week data suggest the race is tightening. In Week 1 (Feb 19), the GOP lead was a commanding 11 points. By Week 2 (Feb 26-27), that margin narrowed to 5.8 points, hinting at potential Democratic momentum as the election progresses.

Why This Matters for 2026

This analysis by Propitious LLC highlights the "polling paradox" facing modern elections. In a district like GA CD-14, relying on raw response data can lead to a "Democratic-leaning sample" that doesn't reflect the actual electorate.

Are we seeing a genuine shift in voter sentiment, or is the "GOP non-response bias" becoming a permanent fixture of Georgia politics? To understand the full impact of these early voting patterns, we have to look past the headlines and into the data models.

Georgia Lt.Governor May Primary -Tier 2

Sun, 15 Feb 2026 21:28:27 GMT

Wide Open Spaces aka Georgia Down Ballot Races

2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor Primary: New Tier 2 Polling Insights

The 2026 Georgia Republican Primary for Lieutenant Governor is currently a wide-open race, according to new data from Propitious LLC. This analysis focuses on Tier 2 counties, which account for one-quarter of the expected primary turnout. With seventy-six percent of voters still undecided, the field is ripe for a strategic breakthrough.

The Battle for Name Recognition

John Kennedy currently leads in raw support at 26%, supported by the highest name recognition in the field at over 25%. However, the data reveals a significant reliability gap. Only 48% of Kennedy’s supporters are classified as high-propensity voters.

In contrast, Greg Dolezal maintains a powerful fortress in Forsyth County. While he trails slightly in raw numbers at 25% percent, his coalition is composed of highly reliable super voters. When the results are adjusted for turnout probability, Dolezal effectively takes the lead at 6.8 percent compared to Kennedy's 5.3 percent.

Strategic Lanes and Voter Quality

The polling identifies distinct strategic lanes among the candidates. David Clark has captured a solid niche among conscience Republicans, securing 40% of the base that supports Brad Raffensperger for Governor. Meanwhile, Blake Tillery stands out for voter quality. Every single one of his supporters is a high propensity voter, and he maintains zero brand damage among the primary electorate.

Policy Drivers for 2026

Voters are currently split on their top tax priorities. 52% percent of respondents favor the elimination of the Homestead Property Tax, while 48% percent prioritize ending the Personal Income Tax. This division creates a unique opportunity for candidates to tailor their economic messages to specific county demographics.

As the campaign enters the spring primary months, the candidate who can most effectively scale their message will likely own the momentum heading into 2026 primary.

Wide Open Spaces

Sun, 15 Feb 2026 20:59:30 GMT

Lt.Governor's Race in Georgia is Mostly Unknown to Voters

2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor Primary: New Tier 2 Polling Insights

The Battle for Name Recognition

In contrast, Greg Dolezal maintains a powerful fortress in Forsyth County. While he trails slightly in raw numbers at twenty-five percent, his coalition is composed of highly reliable super voters. When the results are adjusted for turnout probability, Dolezal effectively takes the lead at 6.8 percent compared to Kennedy's 5.3 percent.

Strategic Lanes and Voter Quality

Policy Drivers for 2026

Voters are currently split on their top tax priorities. Fifty-two percent of respondents favor the elimination of the Homestead Property Tax, while forty-eight percent prioritize ending the Personal Income Tax. This division creates a unique opportunity for candidates to tailor their economic messages to specific county demographics.

As the campaign enters the summer months, the candidate who can most effectively scale their local residency advantage into a regional Tier 2 message will likely own the momentum heading into 2026.

GA-14 Special Election Poll: Shawn Harris Leads as 24% of Voters Remain Undecided

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 15:37:48 GMT

Make sure you read the three follow-up blog posts!

This isn't just another special election; it's a stark preview of the shifting dynamics within Georgia's most reliably conservative district. For the Republican Party, the fragmentation of its vote share and the significant pool of undecided voters represent a critical test of leadership and brand appeal. Can a candidate emerge to unify the diverse conservative factions and capture the crucial suburban vote? Or will the internal divisions allow a Democratic candidate to secure an unlikely runoff victory in a district considered a GOP stronghold? The answers will not only determine the future representation of GA-14 but will also send a powerful signal about the Republican Party's direction in Georgia for the 2026 cycle and beyond.

Who is leading the GA-14 Special Election?

According to our latest polling data, Shawn Harris (D) holds a significant plurality with 34.8% of the vote. Harris has successfully consolidated the Democratic base, capturing nearly 94% of the district's Democratic support.

On the Republican side, the race for the final runoff spot is a statistical dead heat. Colton Moore (R) currently holds 13.2% , followed closely by Clay Fuller (R) at 11.1% . With over 15 Republican candidates on the ballot, the GOP vote is highly fragmented, making the second-place finish the most volatile aspect of the race.

The "Undecided" Factor: A 24% Kingmaker

Perhaps the most significant finding is that 24.2% of voters remain undecided. This group represents the single largest "bloc" of voters after Shawn Harris. Notably, these undecided voters are concentrated in the suburban corridors of Paulding and Cobb Counties.

What issues are driving Georgia's 14th District voters? Voters aren't just looking at names; they are looking at structural trust. The poll found that 71.7% of respondents rank Election Integrity and secure voter identification as "Very Important"—the highest-ranked issue across all demographic groups.

Key Logistics: March 10 vs. April 7

Because this is a special election, all 22 qualified candidates will appear on a single "Jungle Primary" ballot on March 10, 2026. There is no traditional party primary.

The Runoff Rule: If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote on March 10, the top two finishers will advance to a Special Runoff Election on April 7, 2026.

Summary of Key Poll Findings:

Democratic Consolidation: Shawn Harris (34.8%)
GOP Fragmentation: Colton Moore (13.2%) vs. Clay Fuller (11.1%)
The Brand Gap: 19% of voters have a Republican voting history but refuse to identify as "Republican" in the poll.

Defining the "Brand Damage" Factor

As you review the Toplines and Crosstabs, the most critical metric to watch is Brand Damage. In political terms, this measures "Party-Averse" behavior—voters who behave like Republicans at the ballot box but refuse to associate with the "Republican" label in public.

The Example: Look at the supporters of Shawn Harris (D) . While he is a Democrat, 16% of his current supporters are "Behavioral Republicans" —voters with a consistent history of taking GOP primary ballots.

This is the definition of high Brand Damage: voters so exhausted by the current party image that they are parking a "protest vote" with a Democrat. If a Republican candidate can "repair" this brand by offering a traditional, safe alternative, these votes return to the GOP column instantly.

Survey Dates: The data was gathered over a three-day period from January 27 to January 29, 2026 .

Sample Size: We surveyed 835 voters across all 10 counties in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District.

Margin of Error (MOE): The margin of error for this survey is ±3.4% at a 95% confidence level.

Participant Selection: Respondents were selected from a universe of "Strong GOP" and "Strong Democrat" voters—those with a proven behavioral history of high-turnout and consistent partisan participation.

New GA SD-18 Poll: A Dead Heat in the Special Election as Voters Fixate on Affordability

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 19:54:42 GMT

GA SD-18 Poll: A Dead Heat in the Special Election as Voters Fixate on Affordability

Poll Results: Undecideds Dominate Wide-Open Race for Georgia Senate District 18
GA SD-18 Exclusive: Wilson and McNeel Tied; Cost of Living Top Issue
New Data: Trump Approval Soars in SD-18, But Economic Anxiety Looms

A survey of likely voters in Georgia’s State Senate District 18, conducted by Keegan Mobley & Associates, LLC (KMA) , reveals a special election that is still anyone's game. While the district remains a stronghold for conservatives, the race to fill the seat previously held by John F. Kennedy is currently defined by one major factor: uncertainty.

With a majority of voters still undecided, the candidate who best addresses the district’s growing economic anxiety—specifically the rising cost of living—is poised to capture the momentum in the final stretch.

The Horse Race: A Dead Heat with Huge Upside

The battle for the Republican nomination in the January 20th special election is effectively tied. According to the toplines, the two frontrunners are separated by a single percentage point, well within the margin of error.

Undecided: 50.7%
Eric Wilson (R): 18.8%
Steven McNeel (R): 17.8%
Lauren Daniel (R): 5.9%
LeMario Brown (D): 3.9%

The Takeaway: With over 50% of the electorate undecided , this race is wide open. The statistically insignificant gap between Wilson and McNeel suggests a fierce two-man race is emerging, but the massive block of persuadable voters means a late surge by any candidate could decisively shift the outcome.

The Electorate’s Mood: Trump Loyalists Worried About Bills

The political environment in District 18 is unmistakably conservative. President Donald Trump enjoys a massive 83.6% approval rating among these respondents, signaling that an "America First" alignment is a prerequisite for success here.

However, national politics is taking a backseat to kitchen-table issues. When asked to identify the number one issue facing the state of Georgia, voters were clear:

Affordability/Cost of Living: 31.1%
Elections Integrity: 15.4%
Taxes/Government Spending: 15.1%
Crime/Public Safety: 11.1%

Analysis: While election integrity remains a core concern for the base (15.4%), the overwhelming anxiety regarding affordability (31.1%) suggests that messaging on inflation and the economy will likely be the deciding factor for the undecided majority.

Statewide Snapshots: The Governor & LG Race

Looking ahead to the May 19th Republican Primary, the field remains fluid, though early favorites are emerging.

Governor’s Race: 55% of voters are undecided. Among those with a preference, Burt Jones holds a commanding lead at 27.5% , followed by Brad Raffensperger at 8.9% and Chris Carr at 8.3% .
Lt. Governor’s Race: Similarly, 57.2% are undecided, with John F. Kennedy polling at 36.2% .

Methodology Statement

Sample Size (N): 305 Likely Republican Voters
Margin of Error (MOE): ±5.6%
Field Dates: December 23-27, 2025

Propitious Political Postings

The Two governor Fish Fries

And the winner is.....

If we have a big Election Day turnout Jones wins.

Georgia Governor Runoff: Polling and What It Actually Means

GEORGIA REPUBLICAN RUNOFF — An ANALYSIS

Georgia Governor Runoff: Final Polling and What It Means

The Numbers

Why This Race Got Tighter

The Turnout Question

The Chris Carr Factor

What This Means in the Ruoff

There are other runoffs on the ballot?

The General Election Angle

What Happens Next

Georgia 2026 Republican Runoff Poll: Round 2 Update Shows Jackson and Collins Holding Leads, But Turnout Still Rules

Georgia 2026 Republican Runoff Poll: Round 2 Results (Jackson Ahead, But Jones Surging)

When is the Georgia primary runoff?

Key findings: Round 2 (June 5, 2026)

Turnout is strong: 93% definitely or probably voting (up from 92% Round 1).

Round 2 vs. Round 1: What moved?

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Governor runoff?

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO WITH THIS:

Who is leading the Georgia Republican U.S. Senate runoff?

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Lieutenant Governor runoff?

What is driving the runoff electorate?

Who we surveyed

Methodology

Frequently asked questions

Georgia 2026 Republican Runoff Poll: Governor, Senate & Statewide Races (Round 1)

June 16 runoff poll: Jackson, Collins lead—but May taught us to watch election-day turnout

When is the Georgia primary runoff?

Who is on the June 16 Republican runoff ballot?

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Governor runoff?

Who is leading the Georgia Republican U.S. Senate runoff?

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Lieutenant Governor runoff?

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Secretary of State runoff?

Who is leading the Georgia State School Superintendent runoff?

Who is leading the Public Service Commission District 5 runoff?

What is driving the runoff electorate?

Who we surveyed

Methodology

Frequently asked questions

Right Matchups, Wrong Order: Lessons from a Volatile Primary Night

In political data, if you aren't humble, the electorate will gladly do the job for you.

1. Georgia Governor Primary: The Matchup Was Right, the Order Flipped

2. Lieutenant Governor Primary Results: Capturing the Contenders

3. Secretary of State: Spotting the Runoff Floor

4. Public Service Commission (Dist. 5): The Best Call of the Night

The Takeaway on the Georgia Primary Results

Georgia 2026 Republican Primary: Rick Jackson vs Burt Jones, and Three Other Races Likely Headed to a Runoff

Combined Five-Wave Exit Poll of 2,907 Georgia Republican Early Voters Shows Jackson, Dolezal, Vernon Jones, and Tolbert Leading Their Races, But No Candidate Near the 50% Threshold

2026 Georgia Republican Primary

2026 Georgia Republican Primary for Governor: Latest Poll Results

Georgia Congressional District 14 Results versus Polling

Would You Hire Propitious LLC?

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Final Results of Georgia Congressional District 14 Exit Polling

The Real Math on the GA CD 14 Early Vote

The Metro Atlanta Snapshot: Unpacking the 2026 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

The Metro Snapshot: Unpacking the 2026 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

What We are Hearing About the 2026 GOP Governor’s Race

Rick Jackson is in the Lead, But Hold Your Horses

The Trump Endorsement vs. the Suburban Voter

What Actually Matters to These Families?

The Bottom Line

CD 14 UPDATE - Exit Poll

The Hidden Story of GA CD-14: Why the Polls Don’t Tell the Whole Tale - March 1, 2026

The "Silent" Republican Voter

Breaking Down the Projected Vote

Is Momentum Shifting?

Why This Matters for 2026

Georgia Lt.Governor May Primary -Tier 2

Wide Open Spaces aka Georgia Down Ballot Races

2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor Primary: New Tier 2 Polling Insights

The Battle for Name Recognition

Strategic Lanes and Voter Quality

Policy Drivers for 2026

Wide Open Spaces

Lt.Governor's Race in Georgia is Mostly Unknown to Voters