Propitious Political Postings

2026 Georgia Republican Primary

Fri, 03 Apr 2026 19:31:32 GMT

2026 Georgia Republican Primary for Governor: Latest Poll Results

The 2026 Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary is heating up — and the latest polling data reveals a race that is not going the way most political observers expected.

Rick Jackson leads the field in every major voter category. Among decided Republican primary voters, Jackson wins more than half — carrying Trump supporters, traditional conservatives, and Kemp-style Republicans simultaneously. That breadth of support is rare in any competitive primary.

Burt Jones holds the Trump endorsement but has not converted it into ballot support. Among MAGA voters — the largest bloc in the Georgia Republican primary electorate — Jackson still leads Jones by nearly 20 points despite the endorsement.

The wildcard is younger voters. Among Republican primary voters aged 35 to 54, Jones leads and Raffensperger runs stronger than his overall numbers suggest. Higher younger-voter turnout on May 19 could tighten this race significantly.

With roughly 21% of voters still undecided heading into the final stretch, the Georgia governor's race remains worth watching. Jackson enters the home stretch with the most stable coalition and the strongest advertising performance of any candidate in the field.

Want to read the results? Go to the Crosstabs section and get the entire report!

Primary Election Day: May 19, 2026.

Georgia Congressional District 14 Results versus Polling

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 19:33:11 GMT

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Final Results of Georgia Congressional District 14 Exit Polling

Sun, 08 Mar 2026 19:08:15 GMT

The Real Math on the GA CD 14 Early Vote

Make sure you read the final updateafter this!

Let's talk about what the numbers really say about the early voting in the Georgia Congressional District 14 special election. We have the actual data on all 60,250 people who voted early, and the plain math tells an interesting story. (Look for the Toplines and Crosstabs on the Crosstabs Page.)

The first thing to note is that Republican voters were less likely to respond to the text message surveys. The actual list of early voters is 50.1 percent Strong GOP, but the people answering the texts were only 37.4 percent Strong GOP. That is a massive difference.

But there is a new twist we are seeing with crossover voters. Some people who are modeled as Republicans but call themselves Independents are crossing over to vote for a Democrat. Because of this, the total vote between all Republicans and all Democrats is closer than the district's heavy Republican advantage would suggest. Depending on how you calculate those Independent crossover voters, the total margin ranges from essentially tied to Republicans being up by 3.3 points.

When you look at the individual candidates, Democrat Shawn Harris leads the pack at 39.9 percent. However, when you combine all Republican candidates, they project to 50.7 percent of the vote. On the Republican side, Clay Fuller dominates the field with 58.4 percent of the projected Republican votes. Colton Moore is a distant second with 23.7 percent. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff between Harris and Fuller is the most likely scenario. Read the Georgia Congressional District 14 Exit Poll Combined Report Projections for the full story.

Keep in mind that this projection only covers early voters. Voters who show up on Election Day historically skew more Republican. That trend should widen the Republican margin in the final result.

The Metro Atlanta Snapshot: Unpacking the 2026 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 22:14:50 GMT

The Metro Snapshot: Unpacking the 2026 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

What We are Hearing About the 2026 GOP Governor’s Race

Things are starting to heat up for the 2026 primary season! While political junkies are busy dissecting every new poll, we just got some interesting data that gives us a real peek into what people are thin king. This is not a statewide poll; it is just a clear snapshot of what Republican voters in the top-tier counties are saying.

This new info focuses only on Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, and Cherokee counties. Now, why does that matter? Simple, these four counties are a huge part of who decides the Republican primary. Usually, about one in four Republican primary voters in the state comes from t hem .

Compared to the rest of Georgia, these counties are often viewed as a bit older, more settled, and more aligned with the established conservative crowd. So, how are they leaning?

Rick Jackson is in the Lead, But Hold Your Horses

Rick Jackson has a clear advantage. He is sitting at 38.7% support. Behind him is Burt Jones at 19.9%. Brad Raffensperger and Chris Carr are currently further back.

Here is the really interesting part: almost 28% of voters say they are still undecided.

Even the people who have a favorite candidate seem pretty flexible. Around 70% of the people surveyed said they could still change their minds before they vote. So while Jackson is leading today, this race is far from over. Everyone’s vote is still up for grabs.

The Trump Endorsement vs. the Suburban Voter

This is where the political messaging gets tricky. Burt Jones has the high-profile endorsement of Donald Trump. You might think that seals the deal, right? But the numbers tell a different story in t hese counties .

Rick Jackson is actually picking up a big chunk of those suburban voters who like Trump but maybe are not the diehard "MAGA" types. This suggests that many suburban voters are not voting solely on that endorsement, or maybe they have not really focused on it yet. As Jones starts advertising more, this could change in a hurry, so keep an eye on how that endorsement dynamic shifts.

What Actually Matters to These Families?

Forget national talking points for a minute, everyday Georgians in t hese counties care about two things: their pocketbook and their safety.

When it comes to economic issues, 45% of v oters said they would rather see property taxes frozen or eliminated entirely. That beat out traditional state income tax cuts! H omeowners are feeling the pinch and they want local relief firs t.

On safety, most people feel secure in their neighborhoods. However, a significant group, 20%, say they feel less safe now than they did four years ago. That is a sentiment candidates cannot ignore and it might push those undecided voters toward whoever sounds strongest on crime.

The Bottom Line

We are heading into the primary. What happens with these undecided and persuadable voters in t hese counties is going to create the momentum that carries the winning candidate across the rest of the state. Stay tuned, because this is just getting interesting!

CD 14 UPDATE - Exit Poll

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 01:02:39 GMT

Make sure you read the next two updates!

The Hidden Story of GA CD-14: Why the Polls Don’t Tell the Whole Tale - March 1, 2026

Is Georgia’s 14th Congressional District seeing a surprise Democratic surge, or is there something deeper happening beneath the surface? Recent exit poll data from 28,544 early voters (February 19–27, 2026) initially suggested a 5.5-point lead for Democrat Shawn Harris. However, a closer look at the non-response bias reveals a much different reality: a projected 9.6-point lead for Republicans.

The "Silent" Republican Voter

The discrepancy comes down to who is, and isn't, answering the polling. While the raw poll showed Harris ahead, the actual voter universe is significantly more conservative than the sample of 635 respondents.

Participation Gap : "Strong GOP" voters made up 50.6% of the non-respondents but only 37.6% of the poll participants.

The 13-Point Shift : This systematic reluctance of Republican primary participants to respond created a massive 15.1-point "swing" between the raw poll and the projected reality.

Breaking Down the Projected Vote

When adjusting for behavioral data and 2024 primary patterns, the combined projection paints a clear picture of GOP dominance in early voting:

Shawn Harris (D) Projected Vote Share 40.2%
GOP Combined Field Projected Vote Share 49.8%
Refused to /Other Projected Vote Share 10%

Among the Republican contenders, Clay Fuller leads the pack with 28.9%, followed by Colton Moore at 11.8%.

Is Momentum Shifting?

While the overall projection favors Republicans, the week-by-week data suggest the race is tightening. In Week 1 (Feb 19), the GOP lead was a commanding 11 points. By Week 2 (Feb 26-27), that margin narrowed to 5.8 points, hinting at potential Democratic momentum as the election progresses.

Why This Matters for 2026

This analysis by Propitious LLC highlights the "polling paradox" facing modern elections. In a district like GA CD-14, relying on raw response data can lead to a "Democratic-leaning sample" that doesn't reflect the actual electorate.

Are we seeing a genuine shift in voter sentiment, or is the "GOP non-response bias" becoming a permanent fixture of Georgia politics? To understand the full impact of these early voting patterns, we have to look past the headlines and into the data models.

Georgia Lt.Governor May Primary -Tier 2

Sun, 15 Feb 2026 21:28:27 GMT

Wide Open Spaces aka Georgia Down Ballot Races

2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor Primary: New Tier 2 Polling Insights

The 2026 Georgia Republican Primary for Lieutenant Governor is currently a wide-open race, according to new data from Propitious LLC. This analysis focuses on Tier 2 counties, which account for one-quarter of the expected primary turnout. With seventy-six percent of voters still undecided, the field is ripe for a strategic breakthrough.

The Battle for Name Recognition

John Kennedy currently leads in raw support at 26%, supported by the highest name recognition in the field at over 25%. However, the data reveals a significant reliability gap. Only 48% of Kennedy’s supporters are classified as high-propensity voters.

In contrast, Greg Dolezal maintains a powerful fortress in Forsyth County. While he trails slightly in raw numbers at 25% percent, his coalition is composed of highly reliable super voters. When the results are adjusted for turnout probability, Dolezal effectively takes the lead at 6.8 percent compared to Kennedy's 5.3 percent.

Strategic Lanes and Voter Quality

The polling identifies distinct strategic lanes among the candidates. David Clark has captured a solid niche among conscience Republicans, securing 40% of the base that supports Brad Raffensperger for Governor. Meanwhile, Blake Tillery stands out for voter quality. Every single one of his supporters is a high propensity voter, and he maintains zero brand damage among the primary electorate.

Policy Drivers for 2026

Voters are currently split on their top tax priorities. 52% percent of respondents favor the elimination of the Homestead Property Tax, while 48% percent prioritize ending the Personal Income Tax. This division creates a unique opportunity for candidates to tailor their economic messages to specific county demographics.

As the campaign enters the spring primary months, the candidate who can most effectively scale their message will likely own the momentum heading into 2026 primary.

Wide Open Spaces

Sun, 15 Feb 2026 20:59:30 GMT

Lt.Governor's Race in Georgia is Mostly Unknown to Voters

2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor Primary: New Tier 2 Polling Insights

The Battle for Name Recognition

In contrast, Greg Dolezal maintains a powerful fortress in Forsyth County. While he trails slightly in raw numbers at twenty-five percent, his coalition is composed of highly reliable super voters. When the results are adjusted for turnout probability, Dolezal effectively takes the lead at 6.8 percent compared to Kennedy's 5.3 percent.

Strategic Lanes and Voter Quality

Policy Drivers for 2026

Voters are currently split on their top tax priorities. Fifty-two percent of respondents favor the elimination of the Homestead Property Tax, while forty-eight percent prioritize ending the Personal Income Tax. This division creates a unique opportunity for candidates to tailor their economic messages to specific county demographics.

As the campaign enters the summer months, the candidate who can most effectively scale their local residency advantage into a regional Tier 2 message will likely own the momentum heading into 2026.

GA-14 Special Election Poll: Shawn Harris Leads as 24% of Voters Remain Undecided

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 15:37:48 GMT

Make sure you read the three follow-up blog posts!

This isn't just another special election; it's a stark preview of the shifting dynamics within Georgia's most reliably conservative district. For the Republican Party, the fragmentation of its vote share and the significant pool of undecided voters represent a critical test of leadership and brand appeal. Can a candidate emerge to unify the diverse conservative factions and capture the crucial suburban vote? Or will the internal divisions allow a Democratic candidate to secure an unlikely runoff victory in a district considered a GOP stronghold? The answers will not only determine the future representation of GA-14 but will also send a powerful signal about the Republican Party's direction in Georgia for the 2026 cycle and beyond.

Who is leading the GA-14 Special Election?

According to our latest polling data, Shawn Harris (D) holds a significant plurality with 34.8% of the vote. Harris has successfully consolidated the Democratic base, capturing nearly 94% of the district's Democratic support.

On the Republican side, the race for the final runoff spot is a statistical dead heat. Colton Moore (R) currently holds 13.2% , followed closely by Clay Fuller (R) at 11.1% . With over 15 Republican candidates on the ballot, the GOP vote is highly fragmented, making the second-place finish the most volatile aspect of the race.

The "Undecided" Factor: A 24% Kingmaker

Perhaps the most significant finding is that 24.2% of voters remain undecided. This group represents the single largest "bloc" of voters after Shawn Harris. Notably, these undecided voters are concentrated in the suburban corridors of Paulding and Cobb Counties.

What issues are driving Georgia's 14th District voters? Voters aren't just looking at names; they are looking at structural trust. The poll found that 71.7% of respondents rank Election Integrity and secure voter identification as "Very Important"—the highest-ranked issue across all demographic groups.

Key Logistics: March 10 vs. April 7

Because this is a special election, all 22 qualified candidates will appear on a single "Jungle Primary" ballot on March 10, 2026. There is no traditional party primary.

The Runoff Rule: If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote on March 10, the top two finishers will advance to a Special Runoff Election on April 7, 2026.

Summary of Key Poll Findings:

Democratic Consolidation: Shawn Harris (34.8%)
GOP Fragmentation: Colton Moore (13.2%) vs. Clay Fuller (11.1%)
The Brand Gap: 19% of voters have a Republican voting history but refuse to identify as "Republican" in the poll.

Defining the "Brand Damage" Factor

As you review the Toplines and Crosstabs, the most critical metric to watch is Brand Damage. In political terms, this measures "Party-Averse" behavior—voters who behave like Republicans at the ballot box but refuse to associate with the "Republican" label in public.

The Example: Look at the supporters of Shawn Harris (D) . While he is a Democrat, 16% of his current supporters are "Behavioral Republicans" —voters with a consistent history of taking GOP primary ballots.

This is the definition of high Brand Damage: voters so exhausted by the current party image that they are parking a "protest vote" with a Democrat. If a Republican candidate can "repair" this brand by offering a traditional, safe alternative, these votes return to the GOP column instantly.

Survey Dates: The data was gathered over a three-day period from January 27 to January 29, 2026 .

Sample Size: We surveyed 835 voters across all 10 counties in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District.

Margin of Error (MOE): The margin of error for this survey is ±3.4% at a 95% confidence level.

Participant Selection: Respondents were selected from a universe of "Strong GOP" and "Strong Democrat" voters—those with a proven behavioral history of high-turnout and consistent partisan participation.

New GA SD-18 Poll: A Dead Heat in the Special Election as Voters Fixate on Affordability

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 19:54:42 GMT

GA SD-18 Poll: A Dead Heat in the Special Election as Voters Fixate on Affordability

Poll Results: Undecideds Dominate Wide-Open Race for Georgia Senate District 18
GA SD-18 Exclusive: Wilson and McNeel Tied; Cost of Living Top Issue
New Data: Trump Approval Soars in SD-18, But Economic Anxiety Looms

A survey of likely voters in Georgia’s State Senate District 18, conducted by Keegan Mobley & Associates, LLC (KMA) , reveals a special election that is still anyone's game. While the district remains a stronghold for conservatives, the race to fill the seat previously held by John F. Kennedy is currently defined by one major factor: uncertainty.

With a majority of voters still undecided, the candidate who best addresses the district’s growing economic anxiety—specifically the rising cost of living—is poised to capture the momentum in the final stretch.

The Horse Race: A Dead Heat with Huge Upside

The battle for the Republican nomination in the January 20th special election is effectively tied. According to the toplines, the two frontrunners are separated by a single percentage point, well within the margin of error.

Undecided: 50.7%
Eric Wilson (R): 18.8%
Steven McNeel (R): 17.8%
Lauren Daniel (R): 5.9%
LeMario Brown (D): 3.9%

The Takeaway: With over 50% of the electorate undecided , this race is wide open. The statistically insignificant gap between Wilson and McNeel suggests a fierce two-man race is emerging, but the massive block of persuadable voters means a late surge by any candidate could decisively shift the outcome.

The Electorate’s Mood: Trump Loyalists Worried About Bills

The political environment in District 18 is unmistakably conservative. President Donald Trump enjoys a massive 83.6% approval rating among these respondents, signaling that an "America First" alignment is a prerequisite for success here.

However, national politics is taking a backseat to kitchen-table issues. When asked to identify the number one issue facing the state of Georgia, voters were clear:

Affordability/Cost of Living: 31.1%
Elections Integrity: 15.4%
Taxes/Government Spending: 15.1%
Crime/Public Safety: 11.1%

Analysis: While election integrity remains a core concern for the base (15.4%), the overwhelming anxiety regarding affordability (31.1%) suggests that messaging on inflation and the economy will likely be the deciding factor for the undecided majority.

Statewide Snapshots: The Governor & LG Race

Looking ahead to the May 19th Republican Primary, the field remains fluid, though early favorites are emerging.

Governor’s Race: 55% of voters are undecided. Among those with a preference, Burt Jones holds a commanding lead at 27.5% , followed by Brad Raffensperger at 8.9% and Chris Carr at 8.3% .
Lt. Governor’s Race: Similarly, 57.2% are undecided, with John F. Kennedy polling at 36.2% .

Methodology Statement

Sample Size (N): 305 Likely Republican Voters
Margin of Error (MOE): ±5.6%
Field Dates: December 23-27, 2025

Propitious Political Postings

2026 Georgia Republican Primary

2026 Georgia Republican Primary for Governor: Latest Poll Results

Georgia Congressional District 14 Results versus Polling

Would You Hire Propitious LLC?

﻿

Final Results of Georgia Congressional District 14 Exit Polling

The Real Math on the GA CD 14 Early Vote

The Metro Atlanta Snapshot: Unpacking the 2026 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

The Metro Snapshot: Unpacking the 2026 GOP Gubernatorial Primary

What We are Hearing About the 2026 GOP Governor’s Race

Rick Jackson is in the Lead, But Hold Your Horses

The Trump Endorsement vs. the Suburban Voter

What Actually Matters to These Families?

The Bottom Line

CD 14 UPDATE - Exit Poll

The Hidden Story of GA CD-14: Why the Polls Don’t Tell the Whole Tale - March 1, 2026

The "Silent" Republican Voter

Breaking Down the Projected Vote

Is Momentum Shifting?

Why This Matters for 2026

Georgia Lt.Governor May Primary -Tier 2

Wide Open Spaces aka Georgia Down Ballot Races

2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor Primary: New Tier 2 Polling Insights

The Battle for Name Recognition

Strategic Lanes and Voter Quality

Policy Drivers for 2026

Wide Open Spaces

Lt.Governor's Race in Georgia is Mostly Unknown to Voters

2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor Primary: New Tier 2 Polling Insights

GA-14 Special Election Poll: Shawn Harris Leads as 24% of Voters Remain Undecided

Who is leading the GA-14 Special Election?

﻿

The "Undecided" Factor: A 24% Kingmaker

Key Logistics: March 10 vs. April 7

Summary of Key Poll Findings:

Defining the "Brand Damage" Factor

New GA SD-18 Poll: A Dead Heat in the Special Election as Voters Fixate on Affordability

GA SD-18 Poll: A Dead Heat in the Special Election as Voters Fixate on Affordability

The Horse Race: A Dead Heat with Huge Upside

The Electorate’s Mood: Trump Loyalists Worried About Bills

Statewide Snapshots: The Governor & LG Race

Methodology Statement