Let's talk about what the numbers really say about the early voting in the Georgia Congressional District 14 special election. We have the actual data on all 60,250 people who voted early, and the plain math tells an interesting story. (Look for the Toplines and Crosstabs on the Crosstabs Page.)

The first thing to note is that Republican voters were less likely to respond to the text message surveys. The actual list of early voters is 50.1 percent Strong GOP, but the people answering the texts were only 37.4 percent Strong GOP. That is a massive difference.

But there is a new twist we are seeing with crossover voters. Some people who are modeled as Republicans but call themselves Independents are crossing over to vote for a Democrat. Because of this, the total vote between all Republicans and all Democrats is closer than the district's heavy Republican advantage would suggest. Depending on how you calculate those Independent crossover voters, the total margin ranges from essentially tied to Republicans being up by 3.3 points.

When you look at the individual candidates, Democrat Shawn Harris leads the pack at 39.9 percent. However, when you combine all Republican candidates, they project to 50.7 percent of the vote. On the Republican side, Clay Fuller dominates the field with 58.4 percent of the projected Republican votes. Colton Moore is a distant second with 23.7 percent. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff between Harris and Fuller is the most likely scenario. Read the Georgia Congressional District 14 Exit Poll Combined Report Projections for the full story.

Keep in mind that this projection only covers early voters. Voters who show up on Election Day historically skew more Republican. That trend should widen the Republican margin in the final result.