Georgia Politics Blog | Insights by Propitious LLC

Inside the Runoff: Did the Kemp Endorsement Lock It For Jones? The smart money downtown says Rick Jackson has the late momentum, but the grassroots base isn't buying it.

Georgia’s June runoff is not just about what the polls showed on May 19. It is about who shows up next, where momentum moves, and why turnout can still rewrite the race.

Rick Jackson's lead in Georgia's Republican Governor runoff has shrunk dramatically in just one week, his advantage over Burt Jones dropped from 13 points to under 7, a significant tightening that signals a real race ahead of June 16 voting.

The crosstabs reveal why: Jones dominates younger voters (37.5% among 18–29-year-olds vs. Jackson's 12.5%) and holds the Trump base, both reliable turnout in a GOP primary. Election-day turnout composition will decide this race, our pre-primary polling showed Jackson ahead too, until voters went to the polls.

Polling shows one picture, but election-day turnout tells the real story. Georgia voters move from May 19 signals to June 16 momentum.

The Georgia Republican runoff is June 16. Our latest poll shows Rick Jackson ahead in the Governor race and Mike Collins leading the Senate primary. But after May's surprise, we're cautioning: polling leads aren't ballot-box guarantees. Here's what Round 1 tells us—and what it doesn't.

A computer monitor on a desk displaying a Propitious data dashboard with Georgia GOP primary early voting exit poll results, sitting next to a framed Wall Street Journal clipping about market rules

Still trying to figure out who won the Republican primary in Georgia? Dive into the data to see how a massive Election Day wave flipped the script on the early polls and completely redefined the final Georgia primary election results.

Editorial illustration of Georgia 2026 Republican primary polling analysis featuring the Georgia State Capitol dome at sunrise, a glowing outline of Georgia in red, white, and blue, and four bar-chart skyscrapers labeled Governor, Lt Governor, Secretary of State, and PSC, each below a bright red 50% runoff threshold line, symbolizing multiple statewide races likely headed to runoffs.

Georgia Republicans may be headed for a dramatic runoff season, with Propitious LLC’s five-wave early vote exit polling showing no clear knockout in four major statewide primaries. See which candidates are surging, fading, and fighting for the final runoff spots before Election Day.

Trump’s pick is trailing and that’s the story no one wants to say

Now that the results are in for Georgia Congressional District 14, how did our poll projections compare?

A rustic chalkboard sign standing outside a red brick building with American flags. The board shows GA CD 14 early voting numbers, including 60,250 total voters, a projected Republican win by 10.8 points, all GOP candidates at 50.7 percent, Democrat Shawn Harris at 39.9 percent, and Clay Fuller leading the Republican field with 58.4 percent.

Wondering what the actual data says about the GA CD 14 special election? We looked at the records for all 60,250 early voters. The plain math shows a much different story than the early text surveys.

Read the full breakdown to get the verifiable facts on crossover voters, the projected Republican lead, and why Clay Fuller is dominating the primary field

This is a focused look at specifically Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, and Cherokee counties. These four counties typically represent a more established chunk of the Republican electorate.

While Rick Jackson has early momentum, with 38.7% of the vote, the landscape is incredibly fluid. Nearly 28% are still undecided, and 70% say they could change their mind.