June 16 runoff poll: Jackson, Collins lead—but May taught us to watch election-day turnout

The runoff electorate is highly engaged: 92% say they are definitely or probably voting.

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Governor runoff?

Rick Jackson opens Round 1 with the widest lead of any statewide contest: Jackson 48%, Burt Jones 35%, undecided 17%. Jackson sits just short of an outright majority, and the comparatively small undecided share makes this the most defined race on the runoff slate.

A word of caution on the Governor’s race. Read that Jackson lead with the recent past in mind. Heading into the May primary, Propitious polling also showed Rick Jackson ahead of Burt Jones, and then, on election day, Jones’s voters turned out in force and propelled him to the front of the primary field. The lesson from May is plain: election-day turnout was the wildcard, and a polling lead is not the same as a ballot-box result. Our Round 1 numbers describe sentiment today; they do not predict who shows up on June 16. If the Jones turnout machine repeats its primary performance, this race can move fast.

Who is leading the Georgia Republican U.S. Senate runoff?

Mike Collins holds a narrow edge over Derek Dooley among likely runoff voters: Collins 43%, Dooley 39%, undecided 19%. With nearly one in five voters still undecided, the Senate contest is the closest of the top-of-ticket races and well within reach for either candidate. The winner faces Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November.

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Lieutenant Governor runoff?

The Lieutenant Governor runoff is effectively tied: Greg Dolezal 39%, John Kennedy 37%. With 24% undecided — the largest undecided bloc among the top-tier races — this contest is the most volatile and the likeliest to move once ballots are cast.

Who is leading the Georgia Republican Secretary of State runoff?

Tim Fleming leads Vernon Jones 42% to 30%, with 29% undecided. Fleming holds a double-digit advantage, but the large undecided share leaves room for movement down the ballot.

Who is leading the Georgia State School Superintendent runoff?

This is the most unsettled named contest on the ballot. Fred “Bubba” Longgrear leads at 40%, Richard Woods trails at 20%, and 39% remain undecided — a sign that down-ballot education races draw far less voter attention this early.

Who is leading the Public Service Commission District 5 runoff?

PSC District 5 is wide open: a 54% majority is undecided, with Josh Tolbert at 34% and Bobby Mehan at 12%. As the lowest-profile race tested, it is the most likely to be decided by late-deciding voters and turnout.

What is driving the runoff electorate?

The Governor’s race is the biggest draw. Asked which contest is the biggest reason they will turn out, 43% named Governor, 13% the U.S. Senate race, and 39% said they vote in every Republican election.

Voters prize character over ideology. The single most-cited priority was a candidate who is honest and trustworthy (34%), ahead of being the strongest supporter of President Trump’s agenda (25%), being conservative but focused on winning in November (22%), and having experience and a record of results (16%).

Electability is on their minds. Looking to November, 37% said nominating the Republican with the best chance to win the general election matters most, another 37% said both electability and ideology matter equally, and just 11% prioritized nominating the most conservative candidate.

There is real anxiety about the fall. A combined 69% are very or somewhat concerned that Republicans could lose statewide races in Georgia this November — 38% very concerned, 31% somewhat concerned.

Who we surveyed

The Round 1 likely-runoff electorate skews older, conservative, and strongly pro-Trump:

•      Age: 65+ 57%, 45–64 34%, 30–44 7%, 18–29 1%.

•      Gender: Male 52%, Female 45%.

•      Ideology: Very conservative 45%, somewhat conservative 29%, moderate 25%.

•      Trump support: Strongly support 57%, somewhat support 20% — a combined 77% supportive.

Methodology

This is Round 1 of a multi-round runoff tracking survey conducted by Propitious among likely Republican runoff voters statewide, fielded before in-person early voting in the June 16 runoff. Results are reported as percentages of those answering each question; figures are rounded to the nearest whole percent and may not total 100. The margin of error for the ballot questions is approximately ±7 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, so early-round results are directional. As our own primary experience showed, election-day turnout can diverge sharply from pre-election sentiment. Undecided shares are large in several down-ballot races and are expected to narrow as voting nears. Round 2 results will be added to this report later today.

Frequently asked questions

When is the Georgia primary runoff? The runoff is Tuesday, June 16, 2026. In-person early voting begins Monday, June 8, 2026.

Who is leading the 2026 Georgia Republican Governor runoff? In Round 1, Rick Jackson leads Burt Jones 48% to 35%, with 17% undecided — though our pre-primary polling also led with Jackson before Jones surged on election day, so treat the lead with caution.

Who is leading the 2026 Georgia Republican U.S. Senate runoff? Mike Collins leads Derek Dooley 43% to 39%, with 19% undecided.

Is the Georgia Lieutenant Governor runoff close? Yes. Greg Dolezal (39%) and John Kennedy (37%) are within the margin of error, with 24% undecided — the closest top-tier race.

Which Georgia runoff race has the most undecided voters? Public Service Commission District 5, where 54% of likely voters are undecided.

Who advances to November? Runoff winners go to the November 3, 2026 general election. The Senate nominee faces Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff; the gubernatorial nominee faces Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms.

Round 1 — fielded before early voting. Check back for the Round 2 update.