Georgia Governor Runoff: Final Polling and What It Means

Rick Jackson leads Burt Jones by 5.7 points in our final poll before early voting begins. On the surface, that's a comfortable margin. But the data underneath tells a different story, one where turnout, not sentiment, will decide whether Jackson holds on or Jones pulls off an upset.

The Numbers

Among 432 likely voters surveyed through June 6:

• Jackson: 45.8%

• Jones: 40.1%

• Undecided: 14.1%

Margin of error is ±4.7 percentage points.

The polling stabilized here. Earlier in the week, Jackson's lead was larger (48% in Round 1). The tightening is real, and it's worth understanding why.

Why This Race Got Tighter

Jackson dominates among older voters and institutional Republicans. He leads Trump-opposed voters 18% to 9.5%, which is a 2-to-1 advantage. He also performs better among moderates and the 65+ demographic, which typically votes at higher rates in Republican primaries.

Jones, meanwhile, owns younger voters decisively. Among 18–29 year olds, Jones leads Jackson 37.5% to 12.5%, a three-to-one split. Jones also holds a slight edge among Trump supporters (24% to Jackson's 22%), and he performs better with Somewhat Conservative voters than Jackson does.

This isn't a story about persuasion. It's a story about whose voters show up. You must remember that Jones was showing the same pattern before the primary vote. Jackson was ahead and Jones kept closing the gap and on Election Day, well Jones voters showed up. The question is do we see a replay on election day?

The Turnout Question

Primary-to-runoff turnout typically drops. Voters get fatigued. The stakes feel lower. But in this race, both sides have reasons to vote: Trump supporters have skin in the game across multiple races (Senate, Lt. Governor), and Jackson supporters want to consolidate the institutional lane. We expect 680,000 up to 710,000 currently. We will watch the early voting to see how it paces with the previous primary count.

The wildcard is younger voters. In our polling, 18–29 voters represent only 1% of the likely-voter universe, because they historically don't vote in GOP primaries at high rates. But if Jones's operation can push 18–29 participation to, say, 2–3% of the actual runoff electorate, and they're showing 37.5% for Jones, that alone could swing 0.5–1 point in his direction.

That might not sound like much, but it compounds. If Trump-base voters also turn out at slightly lower rates than the primary, and if 65+ voters (Jackson's bedrock) soften even marginally, the 5.7-point lead becomes a margin of error race.

The Chris Carr Factor

Former Attorney General Chris Carr endorsed Jackson. This matters, but not the way many people assume.

Carr's voters were probably soft on runoff turnout. The primary is over; Carr lost; why show up? The endorsement is a permission structure for institutional Republicans to vote Jackson. It activates people who were already leaning Jackson but needed a nudge.

In the crosstabs, Jackson already dominates with Trump-opposed voters and institutional Republicans. Carr's endorsement probably adds 1–2 points by activating those soft voters. It's a real advantage, but it doesn't reshape the race. It doesn't move Trump-base voters or younger voters. It consolidates ground Jackson already held.

What This Means in the Ruoff

Jackson is favored. His crosstabs are stronger. His demographic coalition includes the most reliable voters (65+, moderate, institutional GOP). If turnout looks like a standard GOP runoff, Jackson wins by 5–7 points.

But if turnout composition shifts, Jones has a path. That path requires younger voters to outperform historical expectations, Trump-base enthusiasm to hold (or exceed primary rates), and Jackson's institutional base to soften marginally. It's narrower, but it's real.

The race isn't a toss-up. But it's also not decided. Tuesday's turnout will determine the outcome more than current sentiment will. We’ll say it again: This isn't a story about persuasion. It's a story about whose voters show up. Jones voters showed up on Election Day. The question is, do we see a replay on election day?

There are other runoffs on the ballot?

Senate: Mike Collins leads Derek Dooley 44.4% to 35.8%. Collins dominates the Trump-base (30% to Dooley's 12%) and performs better with older voters. His lead is larger and more structural than Jackson's, making him the safer candidate in this race.

Lt. Governor: Greg Dolezal and John F Kennedy are nearly tied, Dolezal at 38.6%, Kennedy at 34.7%, within the MOE. The race splits almost perfectly along the Trump axis: Dolezal leads Strong Trump supporters, Kennedy leads Trump-opposed voters. There is plenty of room with the undecided voter at 26.7% and they are the key to winning. Whichever coalition turns out stronger will win this race.

Secretary of State: Tim Fleming leads Vernon Jones 37.4% to 27.9%, but nearly 35% of voters are undecided. This race is still in play.

And Others: Secretary of State Fleming is at 37.4%, V.Joes is at 27.9% and undecided are at 34.7%. Fleming has 9.5 point lead but then there is that 35% undecided vote.We suspect Fleming advances to the General ELection in November 2026. Superintendent Race has Loggear at 36.9%, Woods at 19.2% and undecided 43.9%. That my friend is a wide open race leaning to Longgear. Finally, PSC District 5 has 58.7% undecided, Tolbert 30.1%, and Mehan at 11.2%

The General Election Angle

Jackson's campaign is positioning him as the electable conservative, someone who can appeal to moderates and institutional Republicans while also claiming the conservative mantle. Carr's endorsement reinforces that message.

Against Keisha Lance Bottoms in November, that positioning matters. Georgia's general election electorate will include independents and soft Republicans who aren't voting in the June 16 runoff. Jackson's strength with moderates and his institutional backing will be assets in that race.

Jones's campaign, by contrast, is centered on Trump-base mobilization and outsider positioning. Those are powerful in a GOP primary. They're less potent in a general election against an energized Democratic base.

The runoff is about June 16. But the strategic advantage goes to whichever candidate has built a coalition that can survive both the runoff and the general.

What Happens Next

Early voting begins Monday, June 8. Runoff day is Tuesday, June 16. Results will be called that night.

Before voters head to the polls, both campaigns will spend the next 72 hours on turnout. Jackson's team will try to activate older voters and institutional Republicans. Jones's operation will push younger voters and Trump-base supporters. Whoever turns out their coalition more effectively wins.

Our polling shows Jackson ahead, but close enough that execution matters. In runoff elections, it almost always does.

Final poll: 432 completed interviews, fielded June 5-6, 2026. MOE ±4.7%. Voting begins Monday, June 8. Runoff election Tuesday, June 16.