By Charles Mobley, Propitious LLC | Published Monday, May 18, 2026

Georgia voters head to the polls Tuesday, May 19, 2026, for the Republican primary. Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. across all 159 counties. With early voting now complete, five waves of independent exit polling conducted by Propitious LLC throughout the early voting period, 2,907 unique respondents in all, point to a single conclusion: every contested statewide down-ballot race we tested appears headed for a June 16 runoff.

Here's where each race stands going into Election Day.

Will the Georgia Governor primary go to a runoff?

Yes, almost certainly. Rick Jackson leads our combined five-wave exit poll at 37% of decided early voters, well below the 50% threshold needed to win outright. Burt Jones sits at 31%, Brad Raffensperger at 18%, and Chris Carr at 11%.

Jackson has led every wave, but his lead over Jones has narrowed across the cycle, from a double-digit gap in Wave 1 to single digits by Wave 5. The most plausible runoff matchup is Jackson vs. Jones. A Jackson-Raffensperger pairing remains possible if Election Day produces a suburban Atlanta surge.

Who is Rick Jackson? A businessman and outsider candidate who has consolidated grassroots and conservative support.

Who is Burt Jones? The sitting Lt Governor of Georgia, who has run on a Trump-aligned, populist platform.

Who is leading the Georgia Lt Governor primary?

Greg Dolezal, but only recently. John F. Kennedy led our first three waves; Dolezal surged in Waves 4 and 5 and now leads the combined data with 30% of decided voters to Kennedy's 26%. Blake Tillery sits in third at 21%, remarkably steady across all five waves.

A runoff is certain. The most likely matchup is Dolezal vs. Kennedy, though Tillery is a realistic spoiler if Election Day breaks his way.

What's happening in the Georgia Secretary of State race?

This is the closest race on the ballot. Vernon Jones leads with 29% of decided voters, but Tim Fleming (25%) and Kelvin King (24%) are essentially tied for the second runoff slot. The race has had three different wave-leaders across the cycle. Fleming has shown the steadiest gains; Vernon Jones has bled support from a commanding Wave 1 lead. Watch this race Tuesday night — Election Day will decide who joins Vernon Jones in the runoff.

Who will win the Georgia PSC primary?

Josh Tolbert leads the Public Service Commission race with 55% of decided voters to Bobby Mehan's 27% and Carolyn Roddy's 19%. But the PSC race had the highest skip rate of any contest we tested (43%), and the 50% threshold for outright victory is calculated against total ballots cast — making a Tolbert vs. Mehan runoff essentially certain.

What this exit poll can and cannot tell us

This data measures the early voting electorate only. Georgia Election Day voters, historically 45-55% of GOP primary turnout, are not in this sample. These respondents self-selected into our SMS-to-web poll, which skews toward engaged supervoter Republicans. Final percentages and runoff seeding could differ from what these results suggest, though the overall direction is clear.

What to watch Tuesday night

Four runoffs are likely set for June 16. Tuesday won't settle these races — it will tell us which two candidates make the cut in each contest.

NOTE: The Attorney General Election was not included because Propitious LLC works for Brian Strickland for Attorney General.
Charles Mobley is Principal Consultant at Propitious LLC, a Georgia political intelligence firm. Combined five-wave exit poll fielded April 27 – May 16, 2026, n=2,907. Full methodology and crosstabs available on request.