Georgia 2026 Republican Runoff Poll: Round 2 Results (Jackson Ahead, But Jones Surging)
A Propitious statewide survey of likely Republican runoff voters, fielded June 5, 2026 — the day before early voting begins.
ROUND 2 — FINAL PRE-VOTING SNAPSHOT
Georgia’s June 16 Republican primary runoff is one day of early voting away, and our second tracking poll reveals a tightening race in the Governor’s contest and an electorate increasingly focused on electability over ideology. This is Round 2, our final pre-voting snapshot. The numbers have moved since Round 1, and the crosstabs tell a story that headline percentages alone don’t capture.
When is the Georgia primary runoff?
The Georgia primary runoff is Tuesday, June 16, 2026. In-person early (advance) voting begins Monday, June 8, 2026. The runoff determines the Republican nominees for the November 3, 2026 general election. The Senate nominee faces Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff; the gubernatorial nominee faces Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms.
Key findings: Round 2 (June 5, 2026)
| Race | Leader | Result | Undec. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | Rick Jackson | 46% – 38% | 16% |
| U.S. Senate | Mike Collins | 44% – 37% | 19% |
| Lt. Governor | Kennedy / Dolezal | 38% – 37% | 25% |
| Secretary of State | Tim Fleming | 39% – 28% | 33% |
| State School Supt. | Longgrear | 36% – 20% | 44% |
| PSC District 5 | Undecided | 59% undecided | Tolbert 30% |
Turnout is strong: 93% definitely or probably voting (up from 92% Round 1).
Round 2 vs. Round 1: What moved?
The headline race has tightened significantly — and the crosstabs explain why:
Governor Jackson: 48% → 46% (-2) | Jones: 35% → 38% (+3) | Lt. Gov Kennedy: 37% → 38% (+1), Dolezal: 39% → 37% (-2)
The Governor’s race is the story. Jackson’s lead has shrunk from 13 points to 8 points in one week. Jones is gaining. The crosstabs show why: Jones dominates among voters aged 18–29 (37.5% vs. Jackson’s 12.5%) and leads among 30–44 (16% vs. Jackson’s 26%). If those younger cohorts turn out on June 16, Jones wins — poll lead or not. This validates the pre-primary caution: election-day turnout is the wildcard.
The Lt. Governor race has flipped. In Round 1, Dolezal led Kennedy 39% – 37%. In Round 2, Kennedy leads 38% – 37% — a tie, but directional Kennedy is up. Kennedy gains among Trump opposers (20.5% vs. Dolezal’s 4.9%), while Dolezal holds the Trump base (23.4% vs. Kennedy’s 16.8%).
Senate is solidifying for Collins. Collins’s lead is holding solid at 7 points. Collins dominates Strong Trump supporters (30% vs. Dooley 12%) and older voters (65+: 22% vs. Dooley 18%), the most reliable primary electorate.
Who is leading the Georgia Republican Governor runoff?
Rick Jackson leads Burt Jones 46% to 38%, with 16% undecided. But this headline masks a critical vulnerability: Jones has structural strength among younger voters and the Trump base, both reliable turnout in a GOP primary.
The crosstabs reveal the election-day risk for Jackson:
• 18–29 voters: Jones 37.5% vs. Jackson 12.5% — three-to-one advantage
• 65+ voters: Jackson 25.5% vs. Jones 16.4% — Jackson’s only clear advantage
• Strong Trump supporters: Jones 24% vs. Jackson 22% — Jones edges the Trump base
• Moderates: Jackson 19% vs. Jones 11.5% — Jackson’s only clear win
Bottom line: Jackson’s 46–38 lead is real. But if election-day turnout skews younger, more Trump-base, or Somewhat Conservative, Jones wins. Our pre-primary polling also showed Jackson ahead — until Jones’s voters showed up on election day.
WHAT YOU SHOULD DO WITH THIS:
1. Governor: Jones surge is real and documented in crosstabs. Young voters (under 45) are his path. If turnout model shows Jones can drive 18–29 and 30–44 votes, he wins June 16 , poll lead or not. Jackson if he banks 65+.
2. Senate: Collins safer. His Trump base more reliable than Dooley's younger base.
3. Lt. Governor: True toss-up. Dolezal's Trump base standard; Kennedy's Trump-oppose base smaller but real.
4. Down-ballot: Large 'Did Not Answer' and undecided shares on SOS and Superintendent. Persuasion still matters.
Who is leading the Georgia Republican U.S. Senate runoff?
Mike Collins leads Derek Dooley 44% to 37%, with 19% undecided. Collins’s advantage is structural: he owns the Trump base and dominates older voters, the most reliable turnout in a GOP primary.
Collins is safer than Jackson. Strong Trump supporters: Collins 30% vs. Dooley 12%. Older voters (65+): Collins 22% vs. Dooley 18%. Unless younger voters massively outperform, Collins holds.
Who is leading the Georgia Republican Lieutenant Governor runoff?
Greg Dolezal and John Kennedy are tied at 37% (Dolezal 37.4% vs. Kennedy 37.9%, within MOE), with 25% undecided. This race is a coin flip — decided by which demographic turns out.
The split is pure Trump divide: Strong Trump supporters favor Dolezal (23.4% vs. Kennedy 16.8%). Trump opposers favor Kennedy (20.5% vs. Dolezal 4.9% — four-to-one). If Trump-base voters dominate, Dolezal wins. If Trump-uncertain voters show up higher, Kennedy wins.
What is driving the runoff electorate?
Voters are embracing pragmatic conservatism. The single most important shift: “Both electability and ideology matter equally” jumped from 37% to 43% (+6 points). Voters reject the false choice. They want both conservative AND can-win-in-November. This benefits Jackson and Collins.
Who we surveyed
n=487 respondents (407 completed, 80 partial). The Round 2 electorate is older, very conservative, and strongly pro-Trump:
• Age: 65+ 58%, 45–64 35%, 30–44 6.5%, 18–29 1%
• Gender: Male 51.5%, Female 45.9%
• Ideology: Very conservative 48%, Somewhat conservative 31%, Moderate 20%
• Trump support: Strongly 56%, Somewhat 22%, Oppose/Neutral 22%
Methodology
This is Round 2 of Propitious’s multi-round runoff tracking survey, fielded June 5, 2026 — the day before early voting begins. Conducted among likely Republican runoff voters statewide. Results are reported as percentages of those answering each question. Margin of error ±4.97 percentage points at 95% confidence.
Frequently asked questions
When is the Georgia runoff? Tuesday, June 16, 2026. Early voting Monday, June 8–Friday, June 12.
Is the Governor race close? Jackson leads 46–38. But Jones dominates younger voters (18–29: 37.5% vs. Jackson 12.5%), so election-day turnout composition decides it.
Who is leading Senate? Collins 44% leads Dooley 37%. Collins owns Trump base and older voters — more reliable on election day.
Is Lt. Governor close? Yes — Kennedy 38%, Dolezal 37%, a tie. Kennedy leads Trump opposers; Dolezal leads Trump supporters. Turnout composition decides.
What changed from Round 1? Governor tightened (Jackson -2, Jones +3). Lt. Gov flipped Kennedy now leads. Electability messaging surged (+6). Turnout up.
