GA SD-18 Poll: A Dead Heat in the Special Election as Voters Fixate on Affordability
- Poll Results: Undecideds Dominate Wide-Open Race for Georgia Senate District 18
- GA SD-18 Exclusive: Wilson and McNeel Tied; Cost of Living Top Issue
- New Data: Trump Approval Soars in SD-18, But Economic Anxiety Looms
A survey of likely voters in Georgia’s State Senate District 18, conducted by Keegan Mobley & Associates, LLC (KMA), reveals a special election that is still anyone's game. While the district remains a stronghold for conservatives, the race to fill the seat previously held by John F. Kennedy is currently defined by one major factor: uncertainty.
With a majority of voters still undecided, the candidate who best addresses the district’s growing economic anxiety—specifically the rising cost of living—is poised to capture the momentum in the final stretch.
The Horse Race: A Dead Heat with Huge Upside
The battle for the Republican nomination in the January 20th special election is effectively tied. According to the toplines, the two frontrunners are separated by a single percentage point, well within the margin of error.
- Undecided: 50.7%
- Eric Wilson (R): 18.8%
- Steven McNeel (R): 17.8%
- Lauren Daniel (R): 5.9%
- LeMario Brown (D): 3.9%
The Takeaway: With over 50% of the electorate undecided, this race is wide open. The statistically insignificant gap between Wilson and McNeel suggests a fierce two-man race is emerging, but the massive block of persuadable voters means a late surge by any candidate could decisively shift the outcome.
The Electorate’s Mood: Trump Loyalists Worried About Bills
The political environment in District 18 is unmistakably conservative. President Donald Trump enjoys a massive 83.6% approval rating among these respondents, signaling that an "America First" alignment is a prerequisite for success here.
However, national politics is taking a backseat to kitchen-table issues. When asked to identify the number one issue facing the state of Georgia, voters were clear:
- Affordability/Cost of Living: 31.1%
- Elections Integrity: 15.4%
- Taxes/Government Spending: 15.1%
- Crime/Public Safety: 11.1%
Analysis: While election integrity remains a core concern for the base (15.4%), the overwhelming anxiety regarding affordability (31.1%) suggests that messaging on inflation and the economy will likely be the deciding factor for the undecided majority.
Statewide Snapshots: The Governor & LG Race
Looking ahead to the May 19th Republican Primary, the field remains fluid, though early favorites are emerging.
- Governor’s Race: 55% of voters are undecided. Among those with a preference, Burt Jones holds a commanding lead at 27.5%, followed by Brad Raffensperger at 8.9% and Chris Carr at 8.3%.
- Lt. Governor’s Race: Similarly, 57.2% are undecided, with John F. Kennedy polling at 36.2%.
| Candidate | Vote Share (%) |
|---|---|
| Burt Jones | 27.50% |
| Brad Raffensperger | 8.90% |
| Chris Carr | 8.30% |
| Undecided | 55.00% |
Methodology Statement
- Sample Size (N): 305 Likely Republican Voters
- Margin of Error (MOE): ±5.6%
- Field Dates: December 23-27, 2025
